The Crystal Ball

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One of our favorite tools that are used by very few in the golf industry is the 11-month weather forecasting tool. The one shown here is for the cities of Dallas, Denver, Los Angeles, and New York, and it was prepared in January 2020 to demonstrate Weather Trends forecasting ability.

Dark Blue: much colder: <= 5 degrees colder
Light Blue: slightly colder: -1 to 5 degrees colder
Dark Green: <= 200% greater precipitation
Grey: same as last year

The 2020 season for Denver looks to come to a close around Thanksgiving. However, the precipitation (dark green boxes) in the coming year seems to be a lot more than in 2019. The forecast for New York City looks comparable, while Los Angeles should have a banner year with mild temperatures and rain only during their regular “rainy” seasons.

Leveraging Weather to Your Advantage

So, if you had confidence that long-range weather forecasting was accurate, and you knew the forecast for next year, how would you change your current plans? Here are a few ideas:

• Knowing season start timing on a by-city basis will improve revenue forecasting and enhance the strategic planning process.

• Production profiles for clubs, balls, apparel, and other golf-related merchandise could be adjusted to manage a possible overstock scenario
better and soften the need for dramatic markdowns.

• Inventory allocation could be adjusted to place the most product in areas of the country with the most favorable weather.

• Exercise caution offering off-season rates in the spring, thinking that the revenue is recovered in the summer.

• Outings and events could be scheduled for days on which the probability of rain is low.

• Advertisements in local media could be placed for weekends during which weather is to be favorable.

• If a superintendent knew that in 48 hours it was going to rain 1¼ inches, using 400,000 gallons of water on the golf course could be avoided, saving as much as $600 in water expenses.

• A superintendent could defer a fertilizer application costing upwards of $10,000 with the knowledge that it would likely be washed away by
heavy rains.

All of this information is available from Weather Trends International.  Click here and they will help you beat the weather and fine-tune the management of your facility.

Author:  James J. Keegan, Envisioning Strategist, and Reality Mentor.  His sixth book, “The Winning Playbook for Golf Courses: Shorts-Cuts for Long-Term Financial Success,” was released on June 20, 2020, Click Here.  Keegan was named one of the Top 10 Golf Consultants and Golf Advisor of the Year in 2017 by Golf, Inc. Keegan has traveled more than 2,996,000 miles on United Airlines, visiting over 250 courses annually and meeting with owners and key management personnel at more than 6,000 courses in 58 countries.  Click here

© 2021, JJKeegan+

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