The Predictive Index

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How many Starbucks stores are within a 10-mile radius of your golf course? If the answer is zero, our belief is your golf course might be financially challenged unless you are a destination resort. 

In the numerous geographic local market studies performed for clients throughout the U.S., we have observed the number of Starbucks stores located within 10 miles is an accurate predictor of prosperity for a golf course. These include places like the south of I-20 and inside the I-285 loop in Atlanta, GA., or even in a rural area like Morganton, NC. There are no Starbucks in those locations, and we usually find that the golf courses are low-end, entry-level facilities where generating enough revenue to fund capital improvements is a challenge.

Starbucks selects locations based on the attitudinal behavior of consumers within a defined geographic radius. Known as the MOSAIC profile, Experian classifies all individuals within ten designated groups, as shown below:

The Mosaic Global profile assigns individuals to one of ten categories: career and family, bourgeois prosperity, sophisticated singles, comfortable retirement, hard-working blue-collar, routine service workers, low-income elders, metropolitan strugglers, postindustrial survivors and rural inheritance.

The Experian MOSAIC profile represents a household-based consumer lifestyle segmentation that empowers marketers with the insights needed to anticipate the behavior, attitudes and preferences of their most profitable customers and how to reach them in the most effective channels with the best messages.

To help a golf course management team quickly assess if their facility is consistent with the attitudinal behavior of the residents in their competitive market, we developed the Predictive Index™ that details the correlation of the Mosaic Profile and the slope rating,
as presented here:

As with all research, there are caveats. The chart presumes the golfer is playing from the back tees. Because distance comprises 90% of the slope rating, a golf course would be well-served to encourage golfers to play more forward tees. One of the more straightforward answers for golf courses that are too difficult for residents in the immediate vicinity is to renovate their golf course, making it more aligned with the
preferences of local golfers.

We have yet to hear a golfer come off a course and say, I shot my best round ever, and I am not coming back because the course was too easy. We frequently hear that the course was too hard, I lost too many balls, I didn’t have much fun, and I am not coming back.   Also note that if a golf course’s score is between 0 – 2, it does not preclude it from financial success. The golf course team merely needs to import golfers from beyond the 10-mile radius.

Author:  JJ Keegan, Envisioning Strategist and Reality Mentor.  Click here

© 2021, JJKeegan+

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