The Clouded Crystal Ball

Here’s What Will Stay the Same, What Will Evolve, and What Will Fade Away

Forecasting the future is always a humbling exercise, especially in an environment where competing forces can shift the landscape in unexpected ways.

Yet within the golf industry, we are fortunate to have a handful of thoughtful voices whose perspectives help illuminate the path ahead. David Lorenz, formerly Chief Research Officer at the National Golf Foundation (National Golf Foundation), brought a disciplined command of historical data and emerging patterns. Ross Liggett, founder of Metolius Golf (Home | Metolius Golf), offers an optimistic, forward-looking view of how technology may continue to reshape the game. And Michael Dickoff, founder of Apparation (Apparation LLC | Helping the Golf Industry Thrive), contributes a sharp, practical understanding of how innovation can meaningfully improve operations for course owners and operators.

With deep respect for these industry guides, I have gathered a series of observations shaped by their insights, combined with conversations with clients and visits to numerous golf courses throughout 2025—filtered, as always, through my own healthy skepticism and the lens of a conservative financial strategist.

As we look toward 2026, here are several developments that golf course owners may encounter—and potentially benefit from—as the industry continues to evolve.

What Is Not Going to Change

1) Golf Course Owners Will Continue to Be Late Adopters of Technology

Geoffrey Moore’s Crossing the Chasm reminds us that industries adopt innovation at very different speeds. Golf, by its nature and structure, remains one of the more fragmented and cautious sectors.

Roughly 80% of golf courses operate as small, seasonal businesses. Of the 8,672 daily-fee and 2,951 municipal facilities identified by the National Golf Foundation, most are either focused on protecting essential revenue streams or navigating the unique constraints of government oversight. Only a minority—primarily those managed by professional management companies—have the resources or organizational structure to adopt new technology quickly.

The result is visible in the data. According to Apparation, 34% of public courses in the U.S. (and 22% of 18‑hole regulation courses) still do not offer online tee time booking on their websites. After more than 25 years of online reservation systems being widely available, it is unrealistic to expect universal adoption—or to assume that all golfers will be required to book online anytime soon.

2) AI Will Continue to Generate Excitement but Deliver Limited Practical Impact in Marketing and Labor Reduction

AI will remain a prominent talking point, but its real-world impact on golf course marketing and golf shop labor will remain constrained by one fundamental issue: incomplete and inconsistent customer data.

Today, only about 55% of golfers’ email addresses are captured during the reservation or point‑of‑sale process. Without reliable, comprehensive data, AI-driven predictive marketing remains more aspirational than actionable. Key challenges include:

• Customer consent: Without opt‑in, marketing is off the table—and privacy regulations continue to evolve.
• Data entry method: Manually collected data introduces labor costs and accuracy issues.
• Data quality: Inaccurate or incomplete information undermines targeting efforts.
• Depth of customer profiles: Effective marketing requires robust data—demographics, preferences, purchase history, and more.
• Storage and accessibility: Data scattered across workstations or systems limits its usefulness.
• Database fragmentation: Multiple databases create inconsistencies and inefficiencies.
• Generational communication differences: Email may work for golfers over 70; text messaging resonates with those 50–70; younger golfers gravitate toward TikTok and Instagram.

A recent example underscores the slow pace of adoption. In 2024, a technology company launched an AI-driven call center reservation system, projecting more than 400 installations by the 2026 PGA Show. Eighteen months later, they had fewer than 100. They will not, I believe, reach 400 installations by 2027.

3) Barter Will Remain a Common—Though Often Unwelcome—Practice

Despite its drawbacks, barter will remain a fixture in the golf industry. The average course forfeits more than $40,000 in inventory value annually through barter, compared with licensing fees that typically start at around $10,000. Yet the practice persists for several reasons:

• Management company incentives: Rebates from barter companies create private revenue streams.
• Strict contract terms: Software license termination clauses are tightly enforced.
• Misplaced confidence: Operators often believe barter partners will market their course effectively, relieving them of that responsibility.
• Competitive pressure: In markets where many courses use barter, operators fear being disadvantaged if they opt out.

WHAT WILL EVOLVE

1) Demand Will Continue to Outpace Supply in Core Golf Markets

Across the top 100 core-based statistical areas in the U.S., demand for golf remains exceptionally strong. Through November 2025, rounds played were up 1.2% over 2024, continuing a multi-year trend of steady growth.

Participation among women and diverse ethnic groups continues to rise, reinforcing tee-time demand even as green fees climb to unprecedented levels. To illustrate the shift: in 2019, a weekday round with a cart at Denver’s City Park cost $32. Today, that same round exceeds $70, and most reputable courses along the Colorado Front Range now charge more than $75 with a cart.

This strength is mirrored nationally. In Chicago, Village Greens Golf Course achieved 94% of capacity in 2025, according to Weather Trends International.

Locally, the unusually warm winter along the Front Range—daily highs in the low 60s and only two light snow events—has kept courses exceptionally busy. From just before Christmas through January 3, 2026, tee sheets at Denver, Aurora, Fossil Trace, Fox Hollow, Red Hawk Ridge, and Foothills were effectively sold out, with only late-day nine-hole slots remaining.

2) Pre-Payment and Stricter No-Show Policies Will Become Standard

Golf courses are increasingly adopting policies that protect revenue and improve operational reliability.

The Colorado Golf Association set the tone in 2022 by requiring 100% online booking with pre-payment for green fees and a 24-hour cancellation window. Ancillary purchases—carts, range balls, merchandise—remained payable on the day of play. Predictably, some golfers resisted the change, but the trend is accelerating.

At The Ridge at Castle Pines, no-show charges were implemented in 2025, initially offering golfers a credit for a future round. In 2026, the cancellation window expanded from 24 to 48 hours, and the future-round credit was removed entirely.

With demand consistently exceeding supply, operators recognize the financial necessity of closing the revenue gap caused by no-shows. Research from Notefy, an automated tee-time demand system, in partnership with Metolius Golf, found that roughly 9% of public rounds are no-shows, costing the average course approximately $142,500 annually. Their webinar, featuring David Lorenz of the National Golf Foundation, offers excellent insight into this growing issue:  National Golf Foundation.

3) Tee Time Booking Windows Will Expand Dramatically—from the Traditional Seven Days to as Many as 300 Days in Advance

It’s worth asking a simple but revealing question: What other product or experience can a consumer purchase less than seven days in advance that simultaneously costs the operator thousands of dollars?

Across nearly every sector—airlines, hotels, car rentals, theatre, sporting events, and restaurants—customers can secure reservations well beyond a week. Football, baseball, basketball, hockey, concerts, and movies all allow advance, non‑refundable access.

Golf stands alone in its adherence to a narrow seven‑day booking window. This legacy practice, rooted in decades‑old paper-based tee-sheet procedures, persists even though it costs many facilities hundreds of thousands of dollars each year in lost opportunity and revenue leakage.

Colorado offers a glimpse of the future. Several forward‑thinking PGA professionals at municipal and daily‑fee courses have expanded their booking windows well beyond seven days—some stretching into months. Their results are compelling: meaningful incremental revenue, improved demand management, and a more modern customer experience. This practice has also been in effect for years at Deer Run in Victoria, MN.

The industry is beginning to recognize that longer booking windows aren’t just convenient—they’re financially transformative.

4) AI-Driven Autonomous Equipment Will Meaningfully Reduce Labor Costs

The adoption of autonomous mowers and range pickers is poised to reshape golf course operations. One 36-hole facility recently invested $129,000 each in eight Firefly (AMP Mowers – FireFly Automatix) autonomous mowers, projecting an 18-month return on investment from labor savings alone.

These technologies deliver consistent, efficient, and cost-effective performance in two of the most labor-intensive areas of course management: fairway mowing and range ball collection. Robotic mowers provide uniform cuts at optimal intervals, improving turf quality while allowing staff to focus on higher-value tasks. Their precision also reduces fuel consumption, noise, and equipment wear. On the driving range, autonomous pickers operate continuously and safely, eliminating downtime and reducing accident risk. Given that labor typically accounts for more than 50% of a golf course’s total revenue, the financial case for autonomous equipment is compelling—and adoption will only accelerate.

5) Private Country Clubs Will Introduce Longevity Centers Focused on Enhancing Members’ Physical and Mental Well‑Being

Over the past five years, we’ve seen forward‑thinking clubs—from Enhance Anting (Golf Course 世界级球场 | GolfClub) in Shanghai to Diamante (Diamante – Cabo San Lucas Real Estate) in Cabo San Lucas and the historic Fort Worth Club (Home – The Fort Worth Club – Fort Worth, TX) — embrace a new mission: helping members extend not just their lifespan, but the quality of the years they enjoy.

In November 2025, Ravenna Country Club (Private Golf Club & Luxury Community Near Denver | Ravenna Country Club) in Littleton, Colorado—a Platinum Club of America—advanced this movement with the opening of its Performance and Longevity Center. The vision is inspiring and straightforward: support members in expanding their health span so it keeps pace with their life span. That means more years playing great golf, more adventures in the mountains, more time with children and grandchildren, and more freedom to pursue the activities that bring joy and fulfillment.

To make this possible, Ravenna now offers an impressive suite of cutting‑edge tools and therapies, including:

• InBody 970S Ecosystem A comprehensive 30‑second scan that provides detailed muscle and fat analysis, skeletal and muscular balance, segmental measurements by limb, visceral fat levels, total body water, and inflammation patterns—including asymmetries that may impact performance.
• Oxygen‑Powered Performance, Recovery & Skincare Sport Body Lotion Formulated to energize muscles before activity and ease soreness afterward, all while nourishing and revitalizing the skin.
• BackHug Robotic Back Therapy System An AI‑enabled device created by a physiotherapist to relieve stiffness in the spinal joints—one of the leading causes of back and neck discomfort. With 26 robotic fingers that map and adapt to your unique back profile, BackHug delivers deep, precise mobilization along the neck, shoulders, mid‑back, and lower back, mirroring advanced manual therapy techniques.
• Normatec Elite Dynamic Air Compression Boots Trusted by elite athletes, these boots help increase circulation, reduce muscle soreness, and accelerate warm‑up and recovery.
• BrainTap® Neurotechnology Headset A blend of guided audio, light stimulation, and brainwave training designed to reduce stress, improve sleep quality, and sharpen mental clarity.

Together, these offerings create a dedicated sanctuary for full‑body and mind renewal—helping members return to the course, the gym, and everyday life feeling refreshed, restored, and ready for whatever comes next.

 HERE IS WHAT WE BELIEVE WILL FADE AWAY

1. The indoor golf simulator market will contract within the next five years as the market is becoming saturated.

The golf simulator market has expanded rapidly over the past decade, driven by technological improvements, rising consumer interest in off‑course golf, and the success of entertainment‑driven venues such as Topgolf. As reported by the National Golf Foundation, “since 2022, the number has tripled from 570 to over 1,500 installations.” 

That momentum, however, is now pushing the industry toward saturation. Dozens of manufacturers—ranging from premium systems to low‑cost entrants—are competing for the same commercial and residential customers, compressing margins and making differentiation increasingly difficult. The golf simulator market has expanded rapidly over the past decade, driven by technological improvements, rising consumer interest in off‑course golf, and the success of entertainment‑driven venues such as Topgolf.  

For large commercial installations, the next five years will be defined less by raw expansion and more by strategic consolidation and experiential innovation. Topgolf‑style venues will continue to thrive, but growth will shift from new builds to enhancing existing sites with better analytics, immersive gaming, food‑and‑beverage integration, and dynamic pricing models.

Markets with high population density and strong entertainment demand will still support new flagship facilities, but secondary markets are nearing capacity. Overall, the sector’s future favors operators who elevate the experience rather than add more bays.

With many public-private courses setting up simulator bays in the off-season and private home installations, these initiatives are cannibalizing the simulator market, which is likely to contract over the next five years.   One data point showing that the industry is at an inflection point is that the number of miniature golf courses in the US has fallen from 4,271 in 2023 (How many mini-golf courses are there in the United States? – The Brassie) to 3,319 in 2025 (List of Miniature golf courses in United States in 2026)

2. The Question is Which We Fail First:  LIV Golf (Welcome to LIV Golf) or TGL (TGL Homepage) ? 

Neither is likely to last until 2030.  The former will last only as long as funding lasts, and the latter will last only until the novelty wears off.    

A fair question—and one the industry continues to debate—is which of these two ventures is more likely to endure. At this moment, neither appears positioned for long‑term stability. LIV Golf’s future is tied directly to the continued willingness of its financial backers to sustain extraordinary operating costs, while TGL’s longevity depends on whether its tech‑driven novelty can hold audience attention beyond the initial excitement. It isn’t easy to imagine either model thriving into 2030 without significant evolution.

Timeline of LIV GOlf and TGL Golf

Year	LIV Golf	TGL Golf
2020	Early discussions of a rival league	Concept not yet announced
2021	LIV Golf Investments formed; Greg Norman named CEO	TGL not yet public
2022	First LIV event in June; major player signings	TGL announced by Woods & McIlroy (Aug)
2023	PGA Tour–LIV framework agreement announced	Arena construction setback; season delayed
2024	Continued global expansion	Rebuild of permanent arena
2025	Ongoing negotiations with PGA Tour	TGL launches inaugural season Jan 7, 2025

The strategic impact of both ventures has undeniably reshaped the professional golf landscape. LIV Golf introduced team formats, guaranteed contracts, and global event distribution—forcing the PGA Tour to rethink compensation, scheduling, and competitive structure. TGL, meanwhile, blended technology, arena golf, and primetime entertainment to create a broadcast‑friendly format aimed squarely at younger and non‑traditional audiences. Each disrupted golf economics in its own way: LIV through unprecedented capital infusion and competitive pressure; TGL through innovation and a media‑first approach.

In my view, LIV’s long‑term viability hinges on integration with the PGA Tour, sustainable funding, and broader fan adoption. TGL may benefit from its lighter operational footprint and strong player alignment, but its success depends on whether the format can evolve beyond novelty. I believe the concept may be more compelling if future iterations emphasize individual competition rather than team‑based play.

THAT MY PERSPECTIVE

Even more importantly, I’d love to hear your thoughts on what 2026 may bring.